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Robinhood Bets Big on Prediction Markets

Foto: Mark Lennihan/AP/Ritzau Scanpix
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Brokerage notches record quarterly revenue as trading volumes for options, crypto and betting markets surge

Robinhood Markets is betting that a new generation of investors will want to wager on sports, culture and politics in the same place it trades stocks. So far, that bet seems to be paying off.

The number of event contracts traded on the brokerage’s platform surged to 2.3 billion in the third quarter, the company said Wednesday, more than doubling from the quarter prior. The total number of contracts traded in October alone has already blown past that number, reaching 2.5 billion.

The details

Robinhood reported third-quarter net income of $556 million, more than triple the same period a year ago. Per-share earnings of 61 cents bested Wall Street’s 54 cent estimate. Revenue doubled to a record $1.27 billion.

That included roughly $25 million in revenue from its prediction-markets platform , which Robinhood offers through a partnership with Kalshi to allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to yes-or-no questions about future events.

Robinhood recently expanded the kinds of event contracts it offers on its app, branching beyond sports and finance to include those on politics, entertainment and technology.

Event contracts still represent just a sliver of Robinhood’s overall revenue. But the prediction markets business overall has ballooned in recent weeks: Analysts at Piper Sandler estimate that trading volume at Kalshi and rival exchange Polymarket nearly doubled in October. This past weekend, the platforms saw their biggest two days of trading since the 2024 election, the analysts estimated.

Robinhood also said Wednesday that its finance chief, Jason Warnick , plans to retire next year. He will be succeeded by Shiv Verma , the company said.

The context

Robinhood made its name as an easy-to-use app where novice investors could buy and sell stocks. Now, its trading business has expanded well beyond that: Nearly 90% of Robinhood’s transaction revenue in the third quarter came from trading beyond stocks, including options, futures and cryptocurrencies.

The prediction-markets contracts—particularly those tied to sports and entertainment—have drawn criticism for blurring the line between investing and gambling.

“It’s not the pandemic-era Robinhood anymore,” David Bartosiak , a stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, wrote in a morning note. “This one is leaner, more diversified and quietly turning into a serious fintech contender.”

Write to Hannah Erin Lang at hannaherin.lang@wsj.com